Homegrown Leaf?
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Matt1997
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Love it
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I suspect he'll win as many cups with the leafs as he did with the Islanders.
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in 2019 we will have 59 million locked up in 8 players. One of them being a defensemen. I know Kyle Dubas wants a young fast defense corp but man are they going to suck defensively if they cant stick to Babcocks system. I hope I am proven wrong though as I'd love to see them win the cup.
But what a group! What’s the old saying defence doesn’t win championships. Sh... I don’t want to hear anything different.
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I haven't followed, but have the leafs fixed their farm system yet? I kind of figured they had (like any other team that wants a real run at the cup), but this outlay of cash for star power is definitely old-skool leaf thinking. "Let's buy our way into the playoffs" sort of ruled from the late 90's to about 3 years ago. Massive crippling contracts for one trick ponies (remember McCabe?).
Let's look at it. Leafs have 1 great goalie. One okay backup. Weak defense and a star forward that didn't show up at all in the playoffs last year. They just traded or let go a lot of the 'talent' that got the leafs to the playoffs last year (I won't miss van halen's stupid green mouthguard that is never-in-his-mouth). They paid a fortune for a star center that averages 70 points a year when he's not trying to get a big trade deal. If you look at his stats his +/- skyrockets whenever he tries to score goals. From that I think he's like a kadri (no backchecking ability to speak of). That is of course if he stays healthy. So if I went to the effort of looking at the salaries, points and +/- of the players they just lost, and counter them with what they picked up, I would guess they are at a deficit (but they have a star player that has fans talking about winning the cup). To me, that's a ticket selling tactic, not a cup winning one, and THAT is exactly why the leafs will never win another cup. Make the playoffs? Sure. Go deep in the playoffs? Nope, too much riding on one or two players. 1st line heavy.
Sorry about your luck leaf fans. Maybe in 2050 the leafs may get seriously interested in winning a cup (like ovechkin was this year), but everything I see is them going back to what works for them financially.
Let's look at it. Leafs have 1 great goalie. One okay backup. Weak defense and a star forward that didn't show up at all in the playoffs last year. They just traded or let go a lot of the 'talent' that got the leafs to the playoffs last year (I won't miss van halen's stupid green mouthguard that is never-in-his-mouth). They paid a fortune for a star center that averages 70 points a year when he's not trying to get a big trade deal. If you look at his stats his +/- skyrockets whenever he tries to score goals. From that I think he's like a kadri (no backchecking ability to speak of). That is of course if he stays healthy. So if I went to the effort of looking at the salaries, points and +/- of the players they just lost, and counter them with what they picked up, I would guess they are at a deficit (but they have a star player that has fans talking about winning the cup). To me, that's a ticket selling tactic, not a cup winning one, and THAT is exactly why the leafs will never win another cup. Make the playoffs? Sure. Go deep in the playoffs? Nope, too much riding on one or two players. 1st line heavy.
Sorry about your luck leaf fans. Maybe in 2050 the leafs may get seriously interested in winning a cup (like ovechkin was this year), but everything I see is them going back to what works for them financially.
Their farm system won the AHL title this year... Tavares is a far better player than "70 pts". I think you will be surprised how well he plays in a system where he isn't the only person carrying weight. Their defense continues to be a weak point but look at what Chicago did with 4 defensemen that year with their 5-6 pairing playing ~8mins a game. I dont see them winning the cup this year but they are definitely a better team than they were last year. Biggest question will be whether Matthews can stay healthy all year (starting to look injury prone to me) and whether Andersen can continue to be the workhorse he was last year.
*disclaimer* I am no leafer
*disclaimer* I am no leafer
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Just do some basic math... 621 points over 9 years = 69 points on average. He also has a career +/- of -42. That's putting a lot of pressure on the back end, because when he ain't shooting on the net, he ain't playing.
Also, what exactly are you basing the "better than last year" on? They lost a lot of guys that got them to the final, so how on earth can you qualify that except as a guess? I don't know if they're better or worse than last year, a whole lot depends on how matthews is going to like not being the star. I mean he had a temper tantrum at the end of last year, how is this going to improve that? Marner is a bit of a loose cannon, he might or might not show up.
I will say they might do better than they have in the past few years, but likely nothing better than the sudin years. Sure some playoff appearances, but not enough on the 3rd and 4th lines to go deep in the playoffs. They -never- have enough to go deep in the playoffs.
As for the marlies...the leafs have a very annoying habit of getting good players in the farm, but then trading them off. Remember pogge? He was going to be the saviour of the leafs, I don't think he even played a single game in the big show, they traded him off to siberia or something like that. Marner is one of the few exceptions, oh and I guess kadri, although as a 34 point per year average, he's at best a 3rd or 4th liner (that they keep putting on 1st or 2nd for who-knows-what reason). I don't know as if marner even played in the marlies, I think he got picked out of the OHL direct. I think I read somewhere that the leafs have a phenomenal farm system, but that they don't recruit from their farm enough. Again, because they want the big flashy names to bring in the crowds.
So I'm just saying there is no way to know if this new mesh is going to work, it may, but it may implode spectacularly. I'd need a couple of months of looking at how their 3rd and 4th lines play before saying they are good or bad. Blind faith in a team is what led me to be a leaf fan for so many decades. I know their tricks, I know their habits, and unfortunately I think I know their future.
Also, what exactly are you basing the "better than last year" on? They lost a lot of guys that got them to the final, so how on earth can you qualify that except as a guess? I don't know if they're better or worse than last year, a whole lot depends on how matthews is going to like not being the star. I mean he had a temper tantrum at the end of last year, how is this going to improve that? Marner is a bit of a loose cannon, he might or might not show up.
I will say they might do better than they have in the past few years, but likely nothing better than the sudin years. Sure some playoff appearances, but not enough on the 3rd and 4th lines to go deep in the playoffs. They -never- have enough to go deep in the playoffs.
As for the marlies...the leafs have a very annoying habit of getting good players in the farm, but then trading them off. Remember pogge? He was going to be the saviour of the leafs, I don't think he even played a single game in the big show, they traded him off to siberia or something like that. Marner is one of the few exceptions, oh and I guess kadri, although as a 34 point per year average, he's at best a 3rd or 4th liner (that they keep putting on 1st or 2nd for who-knows-what reason). I don't know as if marner even played in the marlies, I think he got picked out of the OHL direct. I think I read somewhere that the leafs have a phenomenal farm system, but that they don't recruit from their farm enough. Again, because they want the big flashy names to bring in the crowds.
So I'm just saying there is no way to know if this new mesh is going to work, it may, but it may implode spectacularly. I'd need a couple of months of looking at how their 3rd and 4th lines play before saying they are good or bad. Blind faith in a team is what led me to be a leaf fan for so many decades. I know their tricks, I know their habits, and unfortunately I think I know their future.
Matt1997
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Probably the best argument in this thread. If you look at +/- as a method to determine whether a player is good or not is an absolute joke. +/- is the worst statistic in hockey and quite possibly sports. So many things influence +/- statistic that it’s complete garbage as many are not related to individual players. Save %, time played, team shooting %...etc. Ovechkin for example. He’s had a few seasons where his +/- was poor yet Washington has made the playoffs every year since 2007 except for in 2013 where the entire team fell apart which included ovechkins worst +/- statistic. That season he was -35 yet he led the league with 51 goals. So is the -35 a greater reflection of his performance over the 51 goals? He carried the team that season yet the +/- statistic does not show that. Tavares has carried NY his entire career yet the +/- statistic does not show. NYI is by no means considered a successful franchise. Since his draft year of 2009 NYI would have a career +/- of around -160 (Pittsburgh to compare is ~+330)...now I did not take into account PPGF or SHGA I based this off of purely GF and GA which is incorrect but the two should balance as in general SH% and PP% are almost identical (~25%pp, 75%pk). That means if Tavares averages 20 minutes a game his career +/- will be roughly 1/3 of the teams career +/- so approximately -53 (he is -42). With a struggling franchise his entire career you can’t expect the player to succeed. Tavares is a next level athlete and will bring something for Toronto.
This isn’t a sport where one player will win you the cup. This isn’t basketball and there are more than two teams. Some star franchise players may never even hoist the cup. The leafs struggle everywhere in their roster. Tavares will surely help the team, will likely bring the leadership that they have been struggling to get since Mats Sundin.
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+/- does not indicate a single thing.... Ovechkin has lead the league in plus minus, is he garbage? It does not track properly because it does not count power play points which means players that play alot of powerplay tend to have lower plus minus. Also at the end of the game who are you putting out with your empty net? Thats right your best players are out there and when they get scored on with the empty net goal thats a -1.
What you want to look at if you want to talk "stats" is the ability to generate scoring chances. Everything past that is more an indication of luck and team quality. Both of which Tavares severely lacked back in long island. Ill post a comparison of advanced stats tracking comparing Tavares to Crosby. I will then explain the significance of each since you so aptly wanted to go down the "stats" road with your plus minus and average points garbage lol
https://public.tableau.com/shared/39WZZMPDS?:display_count=no
All the "individual stats" on the top column basically represent a score out of 100 based on their scoring ability / 60 mins. This takes out the effect that some players play more minutes than others. As you can see hes below crosby but not by a heck of a lot. The stats that matter most are the "On-Ice" stats. CF% is basically corsi for, this is a simple stat that counts scoring chances for and scoring chances against and plots them as a score based on whether they are generating more scoring chances than scoring chances being generated against them. As you can see crosby has a WAY higher CF% rating than tavares. You would think this would indicate that crosby puts out a lot more scoring chances but that leads me to the next section. Relative CF% is simply put the stat that shows their possesion/scoring chances compared to the quality of scoring chances their team is putting out. What you will notice is that tavares is on par with crosby in this aspect, basically speaking that means that tavares is HEAVILY being dragged down by the quality of his teammates.
As you can also see from his "4" in xG basically shows that he is tougher to play against than crosby when it comes to backchecking, that is an extremely difficult thing to do. This has him in the top 2% in the league in terms of 2 way play, pretty far from the "lazy back-checker he has shitty plus minus" that you stated.
Probably the main reason I am sticking up for the dude here is because i am a Florida Panthers fan (queue the laughing) and i watched that guy 1 man my entire team in the playoffs a few years ago, it was uncanny how much 1 person could drive the play. I at times CANNOT STAND leafs fans because of how ignorant they are to talk to regarding their own team. Leafs are in for some cap problems in the near future but letting all those old guys go who "got them to the final" is about making space for younger players. Leafs have the cap space to keep their core of nylander/marner/matthews/tavares. This will rival the penguins depth of malkin/crosby/kessel/letang. Am i sold on Matthews? Absolutely not... Can i sit back and ignore the fact that statistically Nylander has performed on par with a group of 15 players (13 of which are HOF'ers) no.... Matthews is scoring at a rate that exceeds all but 4 players in their first 2 years, Yes that includes the great one. It will bother me if the leafs win the cup but it also bothers me to see stats thrown around like this. This is the age old dispute of "computer boys" vs "old school" and I for one am firmly placed on the side of the computers boys.
Edit : Why you have to post 1min before me @Matt1997 with alot of the same things i said
What you want to look at if you want to talk "stats" is the ability to generate scoring chances. Everything past that is more an indication of luck and team quality. Both of which Tavares severely lacked back in long island. Ill post a comparison of advanced stats tracking comparing Tavares to Crosby. I will then explain the significance of each since you so aptly wanted to go down the "stats" road with your plus minus and average points garbage lol
https://public.tableau.com/shared/39WZZMPDS?:display_count=no
All the "individual stats" on the top column basically represent a score out of 100 based on their scoring ability / 60 mins. This takes out the effect that some players play more minutes than others. As you can see hes below crosby but not by a heck of a lot. The stats that matter most are the "On-Ice" stats. CF% is basically corsi for, this is a simple stat that counts scoring chances for and scoring chances against and plots them as a score based on whether they are generating more scoring chances than scoring chances being generated against them. As you can see crosby has a WAY higher CF% rating than tavares. You would think this would indicate that crosby puts out a lot more scoring chances but that leads me to the next section. Relative CF% is simply put the stat that shows their possesion/scoring chances compared to the quality of scoring chances their team is putting out. What you will notice is that tavares is on par with crosby in this aspect, basically speaking that means that tavares is HEAVILY being dragged down by the quality of his teammates.
As you can also see from his "4" in xG basically shows that he is tougher to play against than crosby when it comes to backchecking, that is an extremely difficult thing to do. This has him in the top 2% in the league in terms of 2 way play, pretty far from the "lazy back-checker he has shitty plus minus" that you stated.
Probably the main reason I am sticking up for the dude here is because i am a Florida Panthers fan (queue the laughing) and i watched that guy 1 man my entire team in the playoffs a few years ago, it was uncanny how much 1 person could drive the play. I at times CANNOT STAND leafs fans because of how ignorant they are to talk to regarding their own team. Leafs are in for some cap problems in the near future but letting all those old guys go who "got them to the final" is about making space for younger players. Leafs have the cap space to keep their core of nylander/marner/matthews/tavares. This will rival the penguins depth of malkin/crosby/kessel/letang. Am i sold on Matthews? Absolutely not... Can i sit back and ignore the fact that statistically Nylander has performed on par with a group of 15 players (13 of which are HOF'ers) no.... Matthews is scoring at a rate that exceeds all but 4 players in their first 2 years, Yes that includes the great one. It will bother me if the leafs win the cup but it also bothers me to see stats thrown around like this. This is the age old dispute of "computer boys" vs "old school" and I for one am firmly placed on the side of the computers boys.
Edit : Why you have to post 1min before me @Matt1997 with alot of the same things i said
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Ovechkin kind of is a shitty player to be honest. He does literally one thing, hover by the boards and take one timers at the net. The fact that he hasn't been shut down before is the same reason I never picked them in any pool... because they usually tank in the playoffs (see also san jose). Ovie stops playing (usually) after the regular season, AND he does absolutely no defensive play unless he simply happens to be in a defensive position (which he never is). The only thing that saves him is his uncanny ability to become invisible and get the puck in the net. Neat trick, but I don't see them winning any more cups, the other teams will have a strategy for him. He really is the whole team.
I would put crosby about 10x better all around player than tavares. Is it fair to say that it's only because of his team that he's not on crosby's level? I'm not saying he's not a great player, I mean he's a multi multi million dollar player (evidently). But he's got some issues on paper, and I don't know as if what the leafs have overall is any better than what the islanders had. Matthews and Marner... marner was absolutely great last season, Matthews might as well have sat out of the playoffs.
Lastly...they hang onto kadri because of the ticket sales. A large group of ethnic Torontonians show up just to see him. Expect next to see an asian winger added, and then an indian that wears a turban over his helmet. Gotta love Toronto.
I'll preface this with a) I don't like pittsburg b) I've always quietly rooted for the Islanders and c) Bergeron is simply the best over-all player in the entire league. I have no scratch in this discussion other than "don't invest in blue and white paint stocks just yet"
I would put crosby about 10x better all around player than tavares. Is it fair to say that it's only because of his team that he's not on crosby's level? I'm not saying he's not a great player, I mean he's a multi multi million dollar player (evidently). But he's got some issues on paper, and I don't know as if what the leafs have overall is any better than what the islanders had. Matthews and Marner... marner was absolutely great last season, Matthews might as well have sat out of the playoffs.
Lastly...they hang onto kadri because of the ticket sales. A large group of ethnic Torontonians show up just to see him. Expect next to see an asian winger added, and then an indian that wears a turban over his helmet. Gotta love Toronto.
I'll preface this with a) I don't like pittsburg b) I've always quietly rooted for the Islanders and c) Bergeron is simply the best over-all player in the entire league. I have no scratch in this discussion other than "don't invest in blue and white paint stocks just yet"
I don't even know how to respond to that when you bring race into the argument, Makes no sense whatsoever to me that you seem to think Toronto needs help selling tickets. They have had a 30+ year waitlist on seasons tickets for decades... Maybe you just wanted an excuse to take a shot at "turban folks"
Matt1997
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Ovechkin playoff career, 126 games 61 goals 56 assists 117 points. Pretty damn good playoff performance if you ask me.
Matt1997
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I’d agree with this statement. Crosby in the league is unmatched in terms of complete dominance on the ice. Mcdavid will get there some day.
Matt1997
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Ovechkin is probably the hardest working offensive player in the game. If you watch him play there is very little players on the ice that want to score as badly as he does. When it comes to defense he was always lacking but defense is not why he is on the ice. He’s on the ice to simply score goals. I don’t consider a non defensive forward a shitty player. Similarly to stamkos, Malkin, and Matthews these players have different roles on the ice. Offense wins championships. After all the objective of the sport is to score more goals then the other team. You can’t win without scoring but you can certainly still win if you are scored on.
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I should also add that the people that ignore +/- usually like teams that don't win cups. Just sayin. It's a valid stat when looking at what a player is going to bring to the ice. I would chalk some of it up to depth (as usual). If the team is not really stacked well, they will put weak D on the top lines, to try and flesh out the 3rd and 4th. Could be what happened to Tavares. But then there's players like kadri and kessel. just watch them after a scoring chance. They glide around like the whistle had been blown, even if the puck is racing back towards their net. I think one year kadri tried to improv
Hard not to bring race into it. Currently 52-54% of Toronto is visible minority. I know for a fact that the leaf management is eager to ensure the younger generations feel represented and involved in the sport. When a black kid has a picture of a black basketball player on his wall and imagines he'll someday be in the nba, that's a race thing, but not a racist thing. I state it as quite a fact that toronto will want to attract a more diverse audience. As well, the turban comment is about race/religion, but not racist. In order for a sikh to participate in the sport on almost any level, they will need some accommodation on their headgear. Indians love hockey for some reason. Again, this is a financial decision on the part of the leaf ownership, and not racist merely because I pointed it out. (plus I have no issue with the 'turban folk')
So it's true the leafs generally have luck selling not only season tickets out, but usually every other seat in the house too. I reference them looking to the future.
Hard not to bring race into it. Currently 52-54% of Toronto is visible minority. I know for a fact that the leaf management is eager to ensure the younger generations feel represented and involved in the sport. When a black kid has a picture of a black basketball player on his wall and imagines he'll someday be in the nba, that's a race thing, but not a racist thing. I state it as quite a fact that toronto will want to attract a more diverse audience. As well, the turban comment is about race/religion, but not racist. In order for a sikh to participate in the sport on almost any level, they will need some accommodation on their headgear. Indians love hockey for some reason. Again, this is a financial decision on the part of the leaf ownership, and not racist merely because I pointed it out. (plus I have no issue with the 'turban folk')
So it's true the leafs generally have luck selling not only season tickets out, but usually every other seat in the house too. I reference them looking to the future.